New Research Uncovers Untapped Pathways to Opportunity for Millions of U.S. Workers
Workers skilled through alternative routes (STARs) have regained more than 10% of the 7.5 million roles lost in past two decades – with potential to access 10 million more
WASHINGTON — A new report released today by social enterprise Opportunity@Work reveals that after decades of declining opportunity, the trajectory for STARs — the more than 70 million workers in the U.S. who are Skilled Through Alternative Routes rather than a bachelor's degree — is starting to reverse.
Between 2000-2020, almost 7.5 million jobs that were once available to STARs became inaccessible as more than 70% of new roles added to the labor market were ones where employers frequently required a degree. The State of the Paper Ceiling report shows that as employers see the value of skills gained beyond bachelor’s degrees, STARs have regained nearly 10% of those middle- and high-wage jobs – with opportunities to access millions more by 2030. In spite of the prevalence of the “paper ceiling” – the invisible barrier that comes at every turn for workers without a bachelor’s degree – this work highlights the positive shift in employer behavior that has contributed to STARs regaining more than 750,000 jobs since 2020.
“This report shows what is possible when awareness and behavior change together: job postings are measurably more open to STARs than in the early 2000s. Skills-first hiring isn’t a theory—it’s starting to work where and when it is fully embraced,” says Byron Auguste, CEO of Opportunity@Work. “If we want our country to grow together - not apart - amid transformative technological and economic change - the starting point is to value all skills. And if we value all skills, STARs will rise.”
The State of the Paper Ceiling report introduces Opportunity@Work’s “STAR Mobility Compass” – a new way to identify opportunities for STARs based on employer demand. According to this analysis, 10 million STARs could move to higher-paid jobs by 2030 if skills-first practices become the norm. The report also highlights the impact of the Tear the Paper Ceiling Campaign, which is shifting public perceptions of who is skilled in America. To date, “Tear the Paper Ceiling” Coalition and STARs Public Sector Hub, members have collectively opened over 500,000 middle- and high-wage jobs since 2022 to STARs by removing unnecessary degree requirements.
Further, the report showcases the experience STARs and employers face in the labor market, including:
- 38% of employers now recognize the Tear the Paper Ceiling campaign (up 43% since 2022), with 83% of these employers more likely to hire skilled workers without bachelor's degrees than they were 2-3 years ago,
- 15% of STARs now proudly identify with the term, and 72% feel confident applying for degree-requiring jobs when they have relevant skills
The research features success stories from major employers who have embraced skills-first hiring, including HII, Microsoft, and Trane Technologies. These companies have discovered that removing degree barriers not only expands their talent pool but also improves business outcomes through greater workforce diversity, reduced time-to-hire, and increased employee retention.
“The commitment demonstrated by leaders across the public and private sectors reflects a deep belief in the value of every worker’s skills and potential," said Papia Debroy, Chief Impact Officer at Opportunity@Work. "We've had the privilege of working alongside many of these leaders as they pilot innovative programs, learn from one another, and shape a new approach to expanding opportunity for STARs within their communities. We believe this movement is just beginning — and the STAR Mobility Compass offers a clear path forward in the years ahead. We invite more leaders to join us on this journey."
This shift for STARs comes at a critical time for the U.S. labor market, which faces unprecedented transformation due to generative AI, potential economic headwinds from tariffs and trade tensions, and persistent division across socioeconomic lines. In this environment of uncertainty, skills-first hiring offers a rare point of bipartisan support in the public sector – and with growing adoption in companies across industries. Past economic downturns have disproportionately harmed STARs, who were often the first to lose jobs and the last to be rehired, often with stricter credential requirements blocking their return. As the nature of work evolves and many Americans worry about their economic future, embracing skills-first hiring provides both a practical solution for employers and a much-needed pathway to economic security for half of American workers, regardless of background or geography.
"For the last 20 years, many employers' practices appear to assume that having no college degree means you don't have skills. Today, Opportunity@Work provides further evidence to refute that narrative," said Dr. Erica L. Groshen, Senior Economic Advisor at Cornell U-ILR, former Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner, and Chair of the STARs Insights Advisory Panel. "By creating a foundational understanding of how some STARs have transitioned to skilled jobs, and using new data to gauge the implied opportunities for growth still ahead, we are one step closer to a labor market that says 'if you can do the job, you can get the job.'"
Opportunity@Work's State of the Paper Ceiling report details how the collective effort of employers, policymakers, educators, and training providers forms an interconnected coalition that is essential to tear down the systemic barriers faced by STARs. The research demonstrates that this web of partnerships, working in concert across sectors and industries, creates the scale and momentum needed to transform the labor market and unlock opportunity for millions.
"As a STAR who has navigated my own career journey and now leads talent acquisition efforts, I've experienced both sides of the paper ceiling," said Mike Bradshaw, VP of Talent at Pinpoint and member of Opportunity@Work's STARs Advisory Council. "When companies focus on skills rather than credentials, they unlock tremendous potential not just for individual STARs like me, but for their organizations and the economy as a whole. This report shows we're at a turning point – we can either return to exclusionary practices that have failed both employers and workers, or we can build a labor market where skills and potential truly matter more than pedigree."
The full report is available at opportunityatwork.org/state-of-the-paper-ceiling.
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About Opportunity@Work
Opportunity@Work is a nonprofit social enterprise with a mission to increase career opportunities for the more than 70 million adults in the U.S. who do not have a bachelor’s degree but are Skilled Through Alternative Routes (STARs). We envision a future in which employers hire people based on skills rather than their pedigree. We are unitingcompanies, workforce development organizations, and philanthropists in a movement to restore the American Dream so that every STAR can work, learn, and earn to their full potential.
Media Contact:
Cheston McGuire
Opportunity@Work
Email: press@opportunityatwork.org
